Monday future blogging

Monday, June 18 2007 @ 05:31 PM   


digital culture
  • Last night I went to see Selene Colburn's dance work-in-progress, The History of the Future. I admit to being something of a philistine when it comes to dance as an art form. My brain can't help but try and make the abstract representational and I have trouble letting go and just enjoying the dance in a pre-critical way. Still, if any dance performance was going to rock my world, it was this one -- this was my friend Selene, after all, and there was a spoken-word element that I loved -- thick as it was with talk of the future and identical twin studies and humorous personal anecdotes. The dance elements were not very "dancerly" (a term I heard Selene use in the Q&A), they were little gestures and body tweaks that conveyed (to me, at least) a variety of mental and emotional states. Anyway, nice job, Selene (and let's talk, because I have some thoughts, film-wise).
  • SF writer and futurist Charlie Stross is someone I've linked to before. He has an essay up on his blog about the futility of interstellar colonization. Basically, he says it's a non-starter...

      Here's a handy metaphor: let's approximate one astronomical unit — the distance between the Earth and the sun, roughly 150 million kilometres, or 600 times the distance from the Earth to the Moon — to one centimetre. Got that? 1AU = 1cm. (You may want to get hold of a ruler to follow through with this one.)

      The solar system is conveniently small. Neptune, the outermost planet in our solar system, orbits the sun at a distance of almost exactly 30AU, or 30 centimetres — one foot (in imperial units). Giant Jupiter is 5.46 AU out from the sun, almost exactly two inches (in old money).

      We've sent space probes to Jupiter; they take two and a half years to get there if we send them on a straight Hohmann transfer orbit, but we can get there a bit faster using some fancy orbital mechanics. Neptune is still a stretch — only one spacecraft, Voyager 2, has made it out there so far. Its journey time was 12 years, and it wasn't stopping. (It's now on its way out into interstellar space, having passed the heliopause some years ago.)

      The Kuiper belt, domain of icy wandering dwarf planets like Pluto and Eris, extends perhaps another 30AU, before merging into the much more tenuous Hills cloud and Oort cloud, domain of loosely coupled long-period comets.

      Now for the first scale shock: using our handy metaphor the Kuiper belt is perhaps a metre in diameter. The Oort cloud, in contrast, is as much as 50,000 AU in radius — its outer edge lies half a kilometre away.

      Got that? Our planetary solar system is 30 centimetres, roughly a foot, in radius. But to get to the edge of the Oort cloud, you have to go half a kilometre, roughly a third of a mile.

      Next on our tour is Proxima Centauri, our nearest star. (There might be a brown dwarf or two lurking unseen in the icy depths beyond the Oort cloud, but if we've spotted one, I'm unaware of it.) Proxima Centauri is 4.22 light years away.A light year is 63.2 x 103 AU, or 9.46 x 1012 Km. So Proxima Centauri, at 267,000 AU, is just under two and a third kilometres, or two miles (in old money) away from us.

      But Proxima Centauri is a poor choice, if we're looking for habitable real estate. While exoplanets are apparently common as muck, terrestrial planets are harder to find; Gliese 581c, the first such to be detected (and it looks like a pretty weird one, at that), is roughly 20.4 light years away, or using our metaphor, about ten miles.

      Try to get a handle on this: it takes us 2-5 years to travel two inches. But the proponents of interstellar travel are talking about journeys of ten miles. That's the first point I want to get across: that if the distances involved in interplanetary travel are enormous, and the travel times fit to rival the first Australian settlers, then the distances and times involved in interstellar travel are mind-numbing.

  • Finally, the NYTimes has a great slideshow up showing photographs of real-life MMORPG players next to images of their in-game avatars. S-PGUON.